On November 22, 2024, a discussion on “The Impact of Georgia’s and the U.S. Elections, the Ukrainian and Middle Eastern Conflicts on Armenia’s Security Situation” was held at the Ani Plaza Hotel, organized by the “Sparapet” Center for Civic Initiatives.
The speakers of the discussion were:
- Arthur Martirosyan, negotiation expert
- Suren Sargsyan, political scientist, American studies expert
- Arseny Saparov, professor at the Rabdan Academy, Abu Dhabi
- Karen Daduryan, diplomat
- Robert Beglaryan, Member of the Iranian Majlis (Parliament) from 2004-2016 and
- 2020-2024
- Stepan Danielyan, moderator, co-founder of the “Sparapet” Center
The discussion was attended by prominent figures from Armenia’s public and political life, including political scientists, diplomats, analysts, lawyers, political technologists, public figures, former military personnel, international experts, and journalists. Following the speeches, participants responded to the main points presented by the speakers. They emphasized the importance of such discussions in a non-partisan format in the current context, as these types of events are rare. Approximately 70 experts participated in the discussion.
Arthur Martirosyan, negotiation expert
Arthur Martirosyan is a professional negotiation expert involved in resolving international conflicts, including participating in closed expert discussions on the ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict, where he presented the complexities of finding solutions. According to Martirosyan, global processes are interconnected, and much depends on events taking place in the United States and the potential policies of Trump, which he addressed in detail. He also highlighted the ongoing developments in the Middle East, which directly impact the situation in the South Caucasus. In this context, Martirosyan stressed that Armenian interests could be at risk in the event of any developments. During this period of uncertainty, it is crucial to understand and identify all possible future scenarios that may arise globally, including in the Middle East and the South Caucasus. These scenarios and challenges must be analyzed to develop our potential responses. For this purpose, centers dedicated to such work need to be established. Martirosyan emphasized the importance of initiatives like Sparapet in this regard.
Suren Sargsyan, political scientist, American studies expert
Mr. Sargsyan presented the domestic political developments in the United States and the potential policies of Trump regarding the Russia-Ukraine conflict and the Middle East, particularly the Iranian conflict, which could directly influence the geopolitical fate of the South Caucasus. Regarding a possible Armenia-Azerbaijan agreement, Mr. Sargsyan noted that U.S. mediation has not yet been effective, and Biden has not been able to achieve a “successful story” in this regard. Future developments will depend on Trump’s policies, which can be discussed more concretely once he assumes the presidency and provides clarity on his approach.
Arseny Saparov, Professor at Rabdan Academy, Abu Dhabi
Professor Saparov defended his doctoral thesis at the London School of Economics and has taught at the Department of Armenian Studies at the University of Michigan and the University of Sharjah. He currently teaches at the Rabdan Academy in Abu Dhabi. He has published scholarly articles, including ones on how the Armenia-Azerbaijan and Nagorno-Karabakh conflicts are presented. Professor Saparov presented one of his recent articles, where he demonstrated how some influential scientific articles, which play a role in shaping opinions within the academic world on these issues, attempt to draw an equivalence between the ethnic cleansing carried out by Azerbaijan, the detention of prisoners and hostages, and the actions of the Armenian side. His presentation was extensive and very informative. He noted that, unfortunately, such articles do not receive the attention they deserve in Armenia; they are not presented in scientific circles, and no conclusions are drawn from them. Moreover, the authors of these articles are invited to Armenia for interviews, which gives them the platform to present themselves as “independent experts,” though, in reality, they are not. In the absence of state policy on this issue, there are also no independent research centers that can not only expose the bias of such so-called “experts” but also effectively counter their claims. The creation of such research centers is extremely important.
Karen Daduryan, Diplomat
According to Mr. Daduryan, what is happening in the Russia-Ukraine and Israel-Palestine conflicts should be viewed in a broader context, one that leads to significant geopolitical changes. In this context, not only new weapons are being tested, but also old ideas are being reintroduced in a new light—ethnic cleansing, blockades, population displacement through food restrictions, and the use of force to resolve conflicts and disputed issues. These have become a new reality. This approach was also used in Nagorno-Karabakh, which led to discussions about the need to change the status quo in the South Caucasus. Mr. Daduryan spoke about the interconnectedness of communications, corridors, and geopolitical changes.
Robert Beglaryan, Member of the Iranian Majlis (Parliament) from 2004-2016 and 2020- 2024
Mr. Beglaryan served as a member of the Iranian Majlis for 16 years, particularly during the critical years of 2020-2024 for Armenia. As an economist by profession, he presented Iran’s economic, social, and demographic situation, supported by statistical data, as well as the existing and potential economic ties with Armenia. According to Mr. Beglaryan, Iran is facing severe economic difficulties as a result of economic and political sanctions. His speech was both interesting and important for the audience, providing a deeper and more objective understanding of Armenia’s neighbor, Iran. Such analyses and presentations are rare in Armenia.
Following the speeches, questions and comments were raised, sparking further discussion.
During the discussion, participants reached a consensus on the critical need to closely monitor global developments, recognizing that many of these could have significant and potentially far-reaching repercussions for the Transcaucasus region, and Armenia in particular. Rapid changes in geopolitical, economic, and technological landscapes demand a proactive approach to understanding and responding to emerging global trends. Participants emphasized that such vigilance would enable Armenia to identify potential risks and opportunities early, allowing it to better position itself on the international stage.
- A key point of agreement was the importance of rebuilding and strengthening relationships with regional influencers. Establishing strong diplomatic ties with neighboring countries and regional powers remains a cornerstone for ensuring stability and advancing national interests. Economic collaboration was also highlighted as a critical area where partnerships could drive mutual benefits, especially in trade, energy, and infrastructure development. Participants stressed that while existing relationships need to be revitalized, Armenia must also proactively seek new, promising partnerships with nations that align with its strategic objectives and long-term development goals.
- Special attention was given to fostering relationships with countries like India and China, which not only hold significant geopolitical and economic clout but also represent opportunities for Armenia to diversify its partnerships beyond traditional allies. These nations, along with others, could serve as valuable partners in advancing Armenia’s economic, technological, and security interests. Identifying areas of mutual benefit and creating frameworks for sustained cooperation would enhance Armenia’s ability to navigate an increasingly interconnected and competitive global environment.
- Furthermore, it was strongly argued that regardless of the strategic direction Armenia adopts in its foreign policy, the foundation of a robust and capable military system is indispensable. A strong defense infrastructure was seen as essential not only for ensuring national security but also as a key element in strengthening Armenia’s negotiating position in any diplomatic or economic partnership. A well-prepared and credible military force would signal to potential allies and adversaries alike that Armenia is a reliable and resilient partner capable of upholding its commitments and protecting its sovereignty.
- Participants concluded that a comprehensive approach—combining strategic diplomacy, economic engagement, innovative partnerships, and robust national defense—is crucial for Armenia to effectively navigate current challenges and capitalize on future opportunities in an increasingly complex global landscape. It is essential to establish and sustain research centers that continuously operate to develop such a comprehensive governance framework. These centers should focus on studying the underlying causes of the failures in political science and diplomatic thinking that significantly contributed to the defeat in the 44-day war of 2020. This will allow Armenia to avoid similar outcomes in the future and foster the development of a resilient and viable state.